By OregonLive.comon November 03, 2012 at 6:01 AM, updated November 03, 2012 at 7:05 AM
Seaside resident Ashley Burk, then 13, and her dog Stanley make their way through a tsunami drill in 2005. Perhaps you were mentally swamped by Superstorm Sandy‘s distant destruction — building sides carved away, roofs afire, people crushed by trees.
I couldn’t help but think about my
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By OregonLive.comon November 03, 2012 at 6:01 AM, updated November 03, 2012 at 7:05 AM
Seaside resident Ashley Burk, then 13, and her dog Stanley make their way through a tsunami drill in 2005. Perhaps you were mentally swamped by Superstorm Sandy‘s distant destruction — building sides carved away, roofs afire, people crushed by trees.
I couldn’t help but think about my family’s own vulnerability.
Hurricanes might not pillage these parts. But an unpredictable Cascadia subduction zone earthquake off the coast worries me more.
If it happens in our lifetimes, says Ian Madin, chief scientist at the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries, “falling trees will be the least of your worries. We’re worried about falling mountainsides.”
High time to create an emergency plan for your family, compile a weeklong survival kit and take inventory of your home belongings. Also, buy earthquake insurance if you’ve got a lot of your net worth tied up in your home.
Two years ago, I wrote that earthquake insurance was “a good bet.” Yet it appeared tough to get without also spending $1,500 or more retrofitting old homes to withstand a four-minute quake.
Since then, I’ve discovered two insurance carriers that will provide coverage without retrofits. The premiums won’t break the bank, either.
The big quake will. As Oregon State University geology professor Chris Goldfinger told The Oregonian’s Ian Campbell in August: “If the Cascadia fault had a warranty against failure, it would have expired many years ago.”
Over the next 50 years, the likelihood that an 8.1 to 8.3 magnitude quake hits off the southern Oregon coast is 40 percent, Goldfinger says. That’s greater odds than bettors at Intrade — an online prediction market — give Mitt Romney of winning Tuesday’s election.
Insurance losses could approach $100 billion between Vancouver, B.C., and northern California, estimates Kate Stillwell, product manager at Eqecat Inc., a catastrophe-consulting firm (You can see where your home falls on earthquake and landslide hazard maps here).
Scientists put the odds of a 9.0 “megathrust” off Oregon’s coast at only 10 percent. But designers built Fukushima nuclear reactor to withstand an 8.6. The 2011 Japan quake was a 9.1.
“Not to play disaster one-upmanship,” Madin says, “but the flooding in New York is sort of equivalent to having a 3- or 4-meter tsunami (9 to 13 feet). “Japan’s was 20 or 30 meters (65 to 98 feet).”
Enough said. Here are ways to prepare:
Emergency plan:Pick a place your family can gather outside your home. Also, pick a place to gather outside your neighborhood if you’re stranded elsewhere. Portlanders, I’d pick the side of the Willamette you inhabit.
Download “Living on Shaky Ground” for more tips on making disaster-preparedness plans.
Disaster supply kit:Prepare for seven days on your own. “The time to get things up and running is not going to be measured in days,” Madin says. “It’ll be measured in weeks and months.”
Besides water, canned food and camping supplies, toss in copies of your deed, insurance, driver’s license, account numbers and other crucial documents in a waterproof bag. Don’t forget your insurance policy, either.
The American Red Cross and Oregon Society of CPAs suggests also including cash in George and Abe denominations and at least a roll of quarters.
The Oregon Office of Emergency Management has a downloadable “Emergency Go-Kit Passport” to record other key information.
You can order prepackaged disaster kits at Beaverton-based Ready Set Go Kits.
Safe-deposit box:Consider renting one to stash originals of your will, birth certificate, passports and other key documents. The Red Cross has other suggestions.
Home inventory: Record the most valuable possessions in your home. There’s even an app for that, developed by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, a collection of state insurance regulators.
It’s not fancy. But it allows you to record photos of serial numbers and print out or email the home inventory to yourself.
Earthquake insurance: The largest carriers in Oregon make it difficult to get. Some require you buy it from another company — usually, GeoVera Insurance Co. Some cover only homes built in 1950 or later. Often, they’ll require you retrofit your home by bolting the frame to the foundation, if it’s not already.
But American Family Insurance and Liberty Mutual Insurance both sell coverage without such restrictions. They simply add an earthquake endorsement to existing policies and charge a higher premium and a higher deductible.
An earthquake endorsement on a 1923 wood-frame home in Portland might cost about $300 a year on top of a basic annual premium of $420, said Sean McLoughlin, a Liberty Mutual agent in Portland. A home built in 1950 or later might pay $180 extra, he said.
Neither company reduces coverage for your home’s contents or for the cost of staying elsewhere while it’s uninhabitable. Some stand-alone policies restrict those amounts.
Here’s a key consideration, though: This coverage always carries a high deductible — usually 15 or 25 percent of the value of your property. If you’ve got no equity in your house, it’s probably not worth buying. Instead, build an emergency savings fund.
Madin, the geologist, passed on such coverage because of the deductible. His 1959 wood-frame home is bolted to its foundation. He figures the cost of broken windows, cracked plaster and a toppled chimney won’t exceed $45,000, the would-be deductible on a $300,000 home.
Ultimately, McLoughlin says, ask yourself this question: “If you’ve got equity built up in your home, and you lose that asset, where would you be?”
— Brent Hunsberger welcomes questions about his column or blog. Reach him at 503-221-8359.